This CNET article wishfully prophecies that HD-DVD will surrender mid-year. This prognosis is based on the the fact that there’s a 5:1 ratio of Blu-Ray to HD-DVD players in households – driven mainly by the PS3. Of course, the verdict is still out on whether the PS3 will ever get traction in the marketplace, so take that with a grain of salt.
Personally, I’m going to skip the next-gen physical media ratrace entirely and skip right to HD downloads via A…ple TV 2.0 or some homebrew setup.